What is predicted to happen to the rainforest?

Predictions include a 20-40% reduction in the next ten, twenty-five, fifty, or one hundred years; a 40% reduction in the next few (undefined) years (which has been debunked as fraud); total loss within the next one hundred years; or little to no change and possibly rebound due to intervention efforts.


There are many predictions regarding the rainforests of the world. Any of them could result. Currently, with the level of deforestation, it is likely that if nothing changes, the rainforests of South America may disappear in the next one hundred years.


Deforestation has been reduced in South America. While some muck slingers like to blame the US for much of the loss due to logging of exotic woods, the US has had a ban on imports of exotics such as Brazilian mahogany and tropical rosewood for years. This is supported by the Lacey Act (16 U.S.C. SS 3371-3378), especially the 2008 amendment that includes exotic woods the US specifically bans and those products that are banned by the nations in which they are harvested. In short, it ain't us. This isn't to imply that illegal operations don't continue, but the efforts of the US are to stop it from coming here.


Much of the cleared land in Columbia and Brazil are for those nations' own interests. Logging is minor (although devastating to the land and ecosystem) in the grander scheme, playing further back in the pack of reasons to cattle raising for beef and agriculture (which leads to clear cutting of forests) to feed the growing populations of South American countries.


The rainforests of the Amazon basin are much more resilient than many people believe. The 2007 IPCC report that predicted a 40% reduction in the near future of the Amazon forest has proven to be false, perhaps even fabricated to push other agendas.


By all means, no one should take a "wait and see" attitude. Reforestation and protection efforts are important, should continue, and should even be increased. But, this should be for the right reasons, not because of some knee-jerk reaction to doom-criers.