Human Resource Forecasting Techniques

Answer 1

Forecasting techniques used are trend analysis, ratio analysis, and linear regression .

Regression Analysis: Projection of future demand is based on the past relationship between the workforce level and the basic factor on which the demand is assumed to depend.

Example1:

Size of Hospital

(No. of Beds)

Number of Nurses

200

240

300

260

400

470

500

500

600

620

700

660

800

820

900

860

y=1.044 X - 28.13

R2 = 0.973

Example2:

Sales / 1,000,000 JD

Number of Sales men

2.351

164

2.613

235

2.991

299

3.211

318

3.412

325

3.621

341

3.814

352

y = 0.007x + 0.974

R² = 0.906

Answer 2

Determining the human resources required by an organization involves identifying the jobs, skills and knowledge required by those jobs and the performance level of the current workforce. Using this data, you can forecast hiring or reorganizing needs for both the short and long term. Forecasting methods typically includes using past data to predict future staffing. Additionally, organizations can use survey, benchmarking and modeling techniques to estimate workforce staffing numbers. Use several methods and cross-check your findings to obtain the most accurate results.

Step 1

Analyze your work operations. Conduct a detailed job analysis for each function in your company and list the policies and procedures required to complete each task. Document the standard output per hour per person. Determine the desired level of output in order to calculate the number of people you need to produce that volume of operations.

Step 2

Conduct a series of online surveys using the Delphi technique--asking several experts in your organization their opinion on forecasting needs based on their experience managing the employees in your organization who directly contribute to the creation of products or services. Experts typically do not share their opinions with each other. Create and distribute your survey using a tool such as Zoomerang, SurveyMonkey or Qualtrics to gather your data. Examine the input and prepare a forecast. Send the forecast to the original participants to get their new input. Repeat the survey process until all participants reach consensus that the forecast appears accurate.

Step 3

Use calculators available from the Society of Human Resource Management website (see Resources) to calculate metrics such as the "average length of service" and "90-day turnover" rates based on your current human resources data. Use this information to help predict future staffing needs.

Step 4

Read reports available from the Department of Commerce on workforce planning needs to help you learn about trends and forecast your budget for hiring, training and paying staff required to compete in a global marketplace. For example, the Department of Defense estimates it spends about $250 annually to support workforce foreign language needs.

Step 5

Document your forecasting process and follow it consistently throughout your company so that all managers align their forecast to your strategic direction, identify skill gaps, create action plans to address shortages, implement plans to hire and retain skilled personnel and evaluate forecasts on an ongoing basis. Using this model, you can more accurately guide workforce planning efforts for all skill areas such as information technology and knowledge management.