Can you predict when a volcano is going to erupt?

Answer 1

It is impossible to precisely predict when a volcano will erupt or how large that eruption will be. However in attempting to make a prediction, scientists (geologists called vulcanologists) will look at the history of past eruptions to determine how the volcano has behaved in the past, this will tell the scientist roughly how often the volcano erupts and the type/size of these eruptions. If the volcano is considered to be 'active' or dangerous, the scientist will map the volcano determining it shape, and height precisely and install GPS sensors, tilt meters and seismographs on the volcano at strategic positions. These will then be monitored (usually from a remote location as the instruments will be capable of sending in their data by radio).

When the volcano starts to become active, earthquakes will be detected (starting deep and getting shallower and shallower as magma rises up in the volcano's Plumbing). As the magma reaches the upper magma chambers the volcano will inflate (get bigger / higher) and the tilt meters will tilt. When this happens the scientists will issue a warning that the volcano is likely to erupt.

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Before a volcano erupts, magma (molten rock) rises towards the surface, breaking rock en route. As more pushes up, the rocks around it vibrate. This results in earthquakes that can sometimes cause damage to buildings but are nothing like the big tectonic quakes seen on the west coast of the US or recently in Turkey.

Any sudden change in quake activity around an active volcano will, hopefully, give scientists enough time to sound warnings.

The magma also causes ground deformation. "As magma rises into a volcano, it has to make space for itself and that means that the ground has to swell," says McGuire. Every year, his team travels to Mount Etna to measure the relative positions of several reference points using sophisticated GPS recording receivers. Any changes in position - of the order of tens of centimetres - could mean the onset of an eruption.

David Rothery, a researcher in the volcano dynamics group at the Open University, uses another method of detecting potential eruptions. Many volcanos have craters at the summit but it is usually too dangerous to put instruments there. He peers at craters from space using satellites that measure infrared radiation, and looks for any sudden changes in heat activity. He says that, depending on the volcano, scientists will get anything from several months to a few days notice of an eruption.

In theory, then, eruptions shouldn't cause casualties. But this always depends on the evacuation plans for danger areas. Before Vesuvius erupts again, for example, 600,000 people will have to be evacuated, possibly at only a couple of weeks' notice. "It's a matter of political will, it doesn't come down to the science in the end," says McGuire

Answer 2

Yes you can, Before a volcano erupts, magma (molten rock) rises towards the surface, breaking rock en route. As more pushes up, the rocks around it vibrate. It also sometimes has smoke coming out of it before it erupts. You could also use a seismometer (or seismograph) ,a sensor that detects the intensity of earthquakes caused by magma that is moving.

Answer 3

Yes and no. Humans have been able to link certain signs and events to volcano's and we are able to predict that a volcano will erupt but not to a specific date, we can only say that in 1 - 100000 ( 100000 years being the limit of our prediction abilities) years this volcano "could" erupt.

Answer 4

There are some warning signs that suggest that a volcanic eruption may be imminent or that volcanic activity is increasing.

Some of these are summarised below:

• An increase in or sudden start of seismic activity below a volcano. This is often a sign that magma is moving into a chamber beneath the volcano which may be a precursor to an eruption. The seismic activity is caused by hydraulic fracturing of the rock mass surrounding the magma due to the magma's very high pressure.
• Bulging or deformation of the earth's surface or part of the volcanoes cone or flanks (such as that which occurred on Mt St Helens before the eruption). This is also a sign of increasing magma pressure and is something that vulcanologists will watch out for.
• Changes in the volume and composition of gasses and vapours emitted from volcanic vents may also indicate an increase in activity and may be a warning sign.
• Changes in groundwater levels, temperature and groundwater chemistry may also occur.

Answer 5

Volcanic eruptions are complex and difficult to predict with complete accuracy. Scientists use a variety of monitoring techniques to assess volcanic activity and issue warnings based on potential signs of an impending eruption, such as increased seismic activity, gas emissions, and ground deformation. While these indicators can help forecast potential eruptions, the exact timing and magnitude of an eruption remain unpredictable.

Answer 6

Yes because the rising of lava flows