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El Niño (and La Niña) refer to the movement of warm surface water (the first 200 metres deep is between 20 and 30°C) in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

When there is no La Niña or El Niño, the trade winds blow the warm water to the west Pacific. This brings rainfall to the countries there.

During a La Niña event, the winds blow stronger, increasing this rainfall. At the same time, on the eastern side of the Pacific, cold water is allowed to rise, reducing rainfall, but bringing nutrients to encourage fish and marine life.

During an El Niño event, the trade winds are weaker. This allows more warm water to move back towards the Americas, increasing rainfall there. The warm water blocks the nutrient-rich cold water from rising, reducing fish stocks. At the same time in the western Pacific the reduction in warm water means drier conditions, even drought to a country like Australia.

These phenomena are impossible to predict. They seem to happen every six or seven years, but we can't tell accurately.

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