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The first serious research conducted on the effect of changes in CO2 levels was in 1896, when Arrhenius completed a laborious numerical computation which suggested that cutting the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by half could lower the temperature in Europe some 4-5°C (roughly 7-9°F) - that is, to an ice age level. Arrhenius made a calculation for doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere, and estimated it would raise the Earth's temperature some 5-6°C (averaged over all zones of latitude). His calculations did not take into account the effect of the oceans in ameliorating the effect of rising carbon dioxide levels, and in any case Arrhenius and other researchers were only interested in explaining the Ice Ages. No one seriously believed that global warming was coming. After much criticism, the work of Arrhenius was ignored by the scientific community.

It was not until the 1970s that scientists began to take the possibility of global warming seriously and began to accept at least the principles of Arrhenius' research.

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