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The jobs most likely to be eliminated are those in a sense are the least natural for people and the most static in their definition. An example is pilot. Flying a plane is very difficult and unnatural for people but that is why is so hard to master. The job of the pilot has been relatively static for the last 50 years. Thus, much of the first automation work in military work is in the area of piloting aircraft and not in replacing the infantry man. Both are dangerous jobs and so the taking people out of danger is not the reason for the trend in automation in aircraft. The vast majority of people learn to walk but only now are robots beginning to master bipedal motion. But automated systems fly aircraft and missiles. The pilot is being changed into an executive. The executive job in any organization is not well defined and requires constant adaptation. Thus, the executive job will be the last to go. The first jobs lost to expert or other AI systems are those requiring very specialized unnatural skills with a static set of expectations. Ironically, the hardest jobs to learn may well be the first to go.

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Q: What kinds of human jobs are most likely to be eliminated because of expert systems?
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