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Because Russia had guaranteed in March 1909 to protect Serbia, in return for Serbian acceptance of Austria-Hungary's annexation of Bosnia-Hercegovina.

In the 1880s and 1890s Serbia had been aligned with Austria-Hungary while Russia backed Serbia's rival Bulgaria. A palace coup in Belgrade in 1903 brought a pro-Russian nationalist orientation as Serbia's new leaders looked toward annexation of Austria-Hungary's southern Slav-inhabited provinces.

Serbia's new orientation dovetailed with the growing "Pan-Slav" sentiment in Russia, which sought to expand its influence in eastern Europe and the Balkans as a counter to German and Austro-Hungarian policy.

The 1909 guarantee was an unforeseen emergency measure intended to get Russia out of a major diplomatic embarrassment provoked by her rivals. As with so much else in the coming of war, it had all been something of an accident.

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