How valid is the view that Louis XVI's downfall was precipitated more by those who thought to overthrow him or by his own mistakes?

Answer 1

Louis XVI DID make serious mistakes, such as refusing to give the third Estate any say in how the moneys he asked from them would be spent. It was a reasonable request, given the many decades of financial mismanagement by the King's ministers. The second mistake was making a run for the armies who would protect him - but who were at the time France's enemies, invading France and fighting its armies - when he was placed under protective custody; and then organizing his flight so badly that he was quickly captured and brought back.

The flight branded him a 'traitor to France' which led to his imprisonment and later, to his conviction to the guillotine. This happened at the start of the period in the French Revolution that came to be named The Terror. During that period thousands of noblemen and their families were executed, and chances are that the Terror's leader Robespierre might have targeted Louis for execution regardless of what had happened before.

On the other hand, Louis XVI was not responsible for the armies of Austria invading France and its General's badly-chosen wording in his 'demand' that Louis be reinstated in all his powers, and branding the French as no more than a bunch of rebels. Nor can he on the basis of his treatment by the revolutionaries so far, really be blamed for fearing for his family's life and safety and wanting to run.

But had Louis immediately granted a say of the Third Estate in the way the money he asked them for would be spent, he might well have prevented his downfall and have ruled on as a constitutional monarch. In that way he would also have prevented the invasion of France by Austria. So on consideration, Louis' own clumsy handling of the situation probably was a bigger factor than any organized movement to bring him down instead of the other way around.