How could the confederacy have won the war?

Answer 1

First of all, the British underestimated the ability of Americans to fight. Second, the Americans were on home turf. They knew their way around, and knew the best tactics for fighting were not simply standing out in the open. Third, the Americans had a cause to fight for. If they were to lose, they would not have just lost a war, they would have lost their freedom and everything they had been working for. Those are just a few... there are many more out there.

Answer 2

"Winning" is relative. The south thought that if they kept up a good defense, eventually the north would just get tired of the conflict and sue for peace. The South also sold a lot of cotton to England, and figured England would throw in on its side, which never happened.

Answer 3

Without question the Confederacy could have won the US Civil War and would have been an independent nation.

All, and that is 99.9% of all US Civil War historians have written and documented that the results of the war were in doubt from its very beginning and was still a viable force by the end of 1864.

Historians have tried to pinpoint at what stage in the four year struggle, the tide had termed against the South from a military point of view. The problem they admit to is that there are any number of battles that foretold the defeat of the South. Examples run from Antietam to Vicksburg to Gettysburg.

What readers often need reminders on was that the North and the South were fighting for different reasons. For the North, the goal was to end the Southern rebellion, they never declared war on the rebelling states. Because of Southern military resistance, the only way to end the rebellion for the North was to "conquer it" in the traditional meaning of those two words.

As in World War Two, as example, the Allies were not seeking a truce with the Axis Powers. The only way to ensure a lasting peace was to for lack of a better term, to destroy Germany and Japan. ( Italy was out of the war early )

The Nazi's were not seeking independence, and "please leave us alone". Their goal was the ultimate defeat of the Allies and become the worlds' super power. As for Jan, Hitler had already confided to his top supporters that Japan would be "handled appropriately" after the West & the USSR were defeated.

Yes, there were conspiracies within the Wehrmacht , more than one, to assassinate Hitler and then sue for peace.

With that said, a return to 1860 is required to answer the question.

The North's goal in the war have been spelled out, and their goal was tougher than the South's objective of forcing the a war weary Union populace to basically end the blood they were shedding and quit the contest. This almost happened.

The Confederacy displayed a stubborn resistance that most leaders and citizens of the North never expected. With that said here is how the South could have won. And the steps that follow are not bound in any particular order. Some would be simultaneous steps.

Preparation is the first factor in this argument ( meaning debate ). The South was not prepared to fight a war with the Union. In fact only seven states had formed the Confederacy at the time of Fort Sumter. There was no true central government, no industries, no navy, and a small population. Clearly there was nothing that required the South to capture Fort Sumter in April of 1861.

And, US President Lincoln, among many others in the North did not want an armed conflict. In fact Lincoln passively let Southerners take over various Federal post offices, territory and other properties of the United States without resistance. Fort Sumter was the last straw however, and Lincoln had duly warned the South that he would not fire the first shot.

With no immediate need to separate themselves from the United States, Confederate leaders who planned to secede, need to plan out their rebellion and failed to do so.

Step number one in preparing for victory would have been to maintain their presence in th US government. Carry on business as usual and not alarm the North of the prospect of a major political move, namely secession. Using the rule of law, the Southern politicians in Washington DC could have submitted legislation in Congress favorable to the Southern states or a particular state. This happens in today's Federal government.

Step number two should have been a propaganda war of words, to try and discredit a Republican president and his administration in every way possible. Point out the radicalism of a Salmon Chase, and other radicals. Remind the Northern people that Lincoln's personal beliefs ran counter to the US Supreme Court.

Step three, work towards unifying the Democrat Party. The once largest national party the US had. It would only be natural to work for that goal. Convince Democrats that any reference to the term "War Democrat" was the "W " word.

Step four would be to reach out to the Democratically controlled city of New York. Use Southern newspapers to worry Irish immigrants that friendly relations between the Republicans and abolitionists was a danger to the New York economy and that any migrations of freed slaves from the South would drive down wages in the North. In other words, create public dissension where ever a home for it could be found and nurtured.

Step Five, use Southern wealth to begin even the seeds of industrialization in places like Richmond Virginia, and recruit immigrant workers to the the South. At the same time, create a propaganda campaign within Native American centers like Oklahoma, offering them a better deal than Washington. It should be noted that the Battle of Pea Ridge involved several thousand Native Tribes fighting for the South.

Step six revolves around money. In 1860, a full 50% of US exports involved the cotton trade. There was nothing wrong with the Power Elite, the major plantation owners to borrow funds abroad and even with the US, based on their overwhelming wealth. Loans with cotton exports as collateral certainly would be not hard to get. Even at war, the South was able to sell Confederate bonds and also to obtain foreign loans. Don't wait for a war crisis, do it as a "business as usual" transaction situation. The goal: create an ample war chest to build even more warships then it did in Liverpool.

Step seven involves Cuba. Southern businessmen could have developed a sphere of economic influence with the Spanish government that controlled Cuba. Havana could have been a Confederate "naval base". Convert Spanish ships of war into cargo ships then back to warships when the war came.

Step eight would be to expand the creation of cotton- river type cargo ships that could later be mounted with artillery and become gunboats.

Step nine would be to take advantage of the three major slave border states. Slave owning was a link between the states of Missouri, Kentucky and Maryland. States Rights was strong within the USA in 1860. Use newspapers in those states to spread anti- Lincoln administration propaganda.

Create in the border states a public awareness that their rights were in danger with the Republicans. Take the John Brown martyr and remind everyone with an ear to hear, that Brown's treason was financed by wealthy New England abolitionists who were never prosecuted for their support of John Brown. Make Brown the face of revolution and treason.

The border states were crucial and deserve a full explanation of how they could have helped the South win. Convincing Kentucky, Missouri and Maryland into Southern leaning states before a conflict would have increased the the White population of the South by 45%. It also would have increased the South's industrial power by 80%. And having St. Louis and Baltimore would have enhanced river power and a Baltimore port.

Step ten, the Second amendment was geared towards State militias. How the Supreme Court took that to mean that individuals were part of that amendment is a separate story. Any way, strengthen the Southern militias. Have retired West Pointers from the South help out on that.

Step eleven would be once again to use the new media to remind the Southern West Pointers in active duty to remember where their roots were.

This process may have taken two or more years to create a "nation within a nation". This might have worked, even if all the steps outlined were not successful. Or to put it another way, the South lost, and a planned revolution had a better chance of success.

Answer 4

Not the army.

But the Confederacy could have been granted its independence if Lincoln had lost the 1864 election - which he nearly did.