The role of statistics in epidemiology .
The primary role of statistics in epidemiology is to make conclusions about a population of interest when data is only available fr…om a sample. Statistics accounts for the uncertainty. In epidemiological datasets there are usually measured observations of an occurance of a disease as well as measured indicators of exposure..
An epidemiologist may for example be interested in whether exposure (e.g. smoking) increases the risk of disease (e.g. cancer)..
Information on smoking however may not be available for all people in the population of interest because of limited resources, so an epidemiologist would have to consider taking a sample..
An epidemiologist would use a random sample in order to use statistics to to make inference about the association between smoking and cancer in the population..
The role of statistics is to determine whether any association that is observed in the random sample is actually a real one..
In most cases there will be some association even if it is very small. The role of the statistician is to determine if the association is different than what would occur by chance. (MORE)
\nThe role of statistics in food epidemiology provides a method to follow and interpret trends in a given population for a given source. \n.
\nData is collect…ed from a specific group in a specific environment to numerically quantify and graphically illustrate the study of a given population while permitting anonymity for those who prefer. \n.
\nTypically, trends are often observed through graphs. Data may be plotted on an x y axis and a line/curve is drawn between the points to average test results. Depending on the complexity of the study, z + may also be included. Once data has been acquired, mathematical modeling can assist in predicting velocity for food borne outbreaks. When points scatter outside the trend it is considered an outlier and may or may not be used as an indicator for further investigative studies. \n.
\nA statistical analysis may take the following factors into consideration:\n.
\nENVIRONMENT\n1. weather (cross pollination via wind; alterations in pH via rain, ...........)\n2. terrain (mineral composition and oxygen flow affects pH; mountains or rivers may prevent interbreeding of species....)\n3. native organisms: invasive vs symbiotic; insects, fungus, restless kids, etc.. \n4. native species: possible source of nourishment for crops and animals\n5. hydroponics vs soil vs container method vs dry farm vs field vs greenhouse vs.....\n6. irrigation: artesian well vs public or private reservoir/canal vs null source vs ....\n7. fertilization : organic or inorganic, regional vs imported, force fed vs.......\n8. sterilization techniques of slaughterhouse and laboratories\n9. processing: sorting and packaging facilities and their employees \n10. storage and final delivery to consumer.\n11.....\n.
\nGENETICS\n1. origin of seed, roots, cutting, graft.....\n2. Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) or Genetically Engineered Organism (GEO)? \n3. in vitro or in vivo? \n4. social environment: organism raised stress free? free range/caged? .....\n5. general health (bovine): breast fed or prefab transfer of immunological components? \n6. immunization: antibiotics/vaccines; sensitization/desensitization\n7. tendency for invasion of vectors (mosquitos?)\n8....\n.
\nA neighborhood of busy folks prefer to spend their leisure time relaxing rather than doing dishes (saves water too!)\n.
\nIn the area, there happens to be only one place that offers vegetarian takeout. The most popular item on the menu is a beautiful side order of partially blossomed broccoli, made to order, ingredients produced locally.\n.
\nFor the longest time, everyone is happy because the food tastes great, the price is right and the rich, cold pressed oil acts to satiate the appetite so one feels full after consumption.\n.
\nAn initial cohort study for this local population produces no remarkable results.\n.
\nTime passes by, quality remains up to par, and a review is conducted. The only condition that changes is time. No notable differences from the original study.\n.
\nSoon word spreads, and the demand for this side dish skyrockets. Owner purchases the surplus of to go boxes from a neighboring restaurant. The chef hires additional staff and their local farm vendor now has to keep up... \n.
\nThe restaurant begins ordering from another source. Chef is overworked and starts to grant greater responsibility to apprentice. The kitchen may forget to soap up one day, the host may "accidentally" sneeze on an irate guest's order and a bright fluorescent green worm may find its way home. \n.
\nAnother assistant is hired. Mysterious epidermal lesions occasionally appear on his hand and he sometimes forgets to wear gloves while chopping broccoli. He travels often.\n.
\nA final study is conducted and intriguing outliers emerge due to:\n.
\n1. development of food allergies from repetitive consumption of dish\n2. food poisoning from possible bacterial infection due to improper food handling\n3. emission of toxic gases from reheating using inappropriate containers \n4. irregular eating habits, including meal replacement and non-traditional food pairing\n5. ........\n.
\nThe owner is notified of the results, quality is resumed, customers are happy and the stat team is awarded further funding to continue to explore the most interesting outlier... (MORE)
Epidemiology is the study of the spread of disease. It helps scientists to predict how far a disease will spread, how much damage it may do, and plan treatment, the creation o…f vaccines, and so forth. The current preparations for swine flu were a result of epidemiological studies.. (MORE)
Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of disease in a human population. It is the basic science and fundamental practice of public health. It is base…d on the underlying premise that human disease does not occur randomly and that causing and preventative factors can be identified through systematic investigation. (MORE)
There are three main category of epidemology; E ndemic is a disease that is constantly present to a greater or lesser degree in people of a certain class or in people living… in a particular location; an epidemic is a widespread outbreak of an infectious disease that infects many people at the same time; a pandemic is an epidemic that is geographically widespread occurring throughout a region or even throughout the worl (MORE)
This is a model this can be used to predict or track the development of an epidemic. .
It can often be referred to as the SIR model. Susceptible, Infected, Recovery. .
A pop…ulation is susceptible to a disease, it can then become infected once it catches the disease and then recovers. It may be there is a positive feedback into the susceptible category if the recovered people cannot develop immunity. .
Various external factors control the risk of the susceptible populous e.g. exposure, health diet etc. The Infected rate depends upon exposure, type of disease, ease of infection etc. The recovery depends upon the disease. In the most extreme cases of death the populous for mathematical purposes is removed from the recovery category. .
If you know your population e.g a school. Then you can enter hypothetical illnesses such as mumps into the model to see how quickly the disease would spread in the school. This can allow you to develop strategies to reduce infection and promote recovery e.g. isolation or washing hands. (MORE)
The epidemiological triangle or epidemiological triad is a model describing the factors involved for an infectious disease. On one of each of the three ends is the host, the a…gent and the environment: .
The Host : the living organism which is capable of being infected .
The Agent : the factor that must be present or missing for the disease to occur .
The Environment : the extrinsic force(s) or situation affecting the host's opportunity to be exposed to the agent (MORE)