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Probability

The probability of a certain event is a number expressing the likelihood that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences. In mathematics, it is a measure of how often an event will happen and is the basis of statistics.

14,643 Questions

What is your number choses if you roll 5 6 sided dice?

If you rolled 5 six-sided dice, there would be 6 to the power 5 = 7776 choices.

What is the probability that two random cards are next to each other in a random deck of cards?

I just programmed a small software and find a 75,6% of two cards beein next to each other in 15 million random generated decks.

In the Monty Hall problem if once the player has picked a door another door is randomly opened and happens to reveal a goat should the player switch his choice to the last door?

No, there's no reason to do so, switching in this case will win half of the time, exactly like sticking to the initial choice.

This Monty Hall problem variant is called the "Monty Fall" or "Ignorant Monty" variant. The possible scenarios which made switching win more often in the original Monty Hall problem, correspond in this variant to the scenarios where the randomly opened door revealed the car (and as such are not considered here).

What is the probability of not being born on a Friday the 13th?

This question appears simple but it is not.

The simplistic approach goes as follows:

  1. There are twelve 13ths in a year of 365 days (but what about Leap Years?).
  2. Each 13th can fall on any day of the week so, on average, there will be 12/7 Fridays in a year.
  3. That leaves 365 - 12/7 = 363 2/7 days which are not Friday the 13 and so the probability is 363 2/7 / 365 = 0.9953, approx.

But at step 1 you have ignored Leap Years. At step 2 you assume that the day of the week for the 13th is independent from one month to another. This is not true: for example, in a non Leap Year, February and March must be the same. In fact. in the 20th Century, the 13th fell on Fridays more than any other day of the week. However, it is possible, though tedious, to adjust for both these factors but there are others which make the task virtually impossible:


Births are not uniformly distributed across the year. In the UK, for example, in the 36 years from 1979 and 2014 (inclusive), the 13th did not feature in any year as the most popular date of birth. With only 34 years that is not too extreme. However, if the date was approximately evenly distributed, you would expect the most popular day to lie in the range 10-16 around 8 times in 34 years. In fact, this happened only once!


The most popular day to be born was Friday, followed very closely by Thursday, Wednesday, and Tuesday. Mondays tended to have fewer births than other weekdays. Saturdays and Sundays have even fewer births. The lower figures for the weekends may be due to management decisions not to schedule planned births, such as caesarean sections at weekends when fewer staff are available. This may have a bunching effect of Fridays.


So you are faced with 13 being less common but Fridays being more so. Disentangling that requires some very serious data crunching!

Why is a penny brown?

From 1793 to 1982, nearly all cents were made of copper or bronze. Post 1982, they're plated with copper. This metal turns brown from oxidation after it's been exposed to the air for a while.

What is the chance for a couple to give birth to a baby girl?

Approx 0.48, based on the global birth gender ratio for 2012.

What does a higher z-score tell you about a specific data entry?

A high z-score indicates an observation that is further away from the mean. This indicates that either the observation is less probable or that assumptions about the distribution are wrong.

In terms of Nutrients and Ph what difference are there between the natural and agricultural soil samples?

It depends on your particular samples. In general you'd expect more free nutrients such as nitrate in the farm soil due to the use of artificial fertilizers. Many natural soils are more acidic than is perfect for most crops, so farmers use lime to increase the pH.

What is the mathematical probability for each number on a dice if you roll the dice fifty times?

If the dice is 6 sided, the chances of rolling each number is about 17% (100/6)

If the dice is 4 sided, the chances of rolling each number is 25% (100/4)

Similarly,

8 sided = 12.5%

10 sided = 10%

12 sided ≈ 8%

20 sided = 5%

What is a Bernoulli distribution?

A Bernoulli distribution is a discrete probability distribution which takes value 1 with success probability p and value 0 with failure probability q = 1 - p.

How many ways can 12 true and false be arrange?

Assuming there are 12 statements that can be true or false, there are 212 = 4096 ways.

Can you call a spade as spade in the court?

If you are referring to the tool or implement, then yes you can.