Mining

Data Mining Seminar report

Introduction

Data mining is the process of extracting patterns from data. Data mining is becoming an increasingly important tool to transform this data into information. It is commonly used in a wide range of profiling practices, such as marketing, surveillance, fraud detection and scientific discovery.

Data mining can be used to uncover patterns in data but is often carried out only on samples of data. The mining process will be ineffective if the samples are not a good representation of the larger body of data. Data mining cannot discover patterns that may be present in the larger body of data if those patterns are not present in the sample being "mined". Inability to find patterns may become a cause for some disputes between customers and service providers. Therefore data mining is not foolproof but may be useful if sufficiently representative data samples are collected. The discovery of a particular pattern in a particular set of data does not necessarily mean that a pattern is found elsewhere in the larger data from which that sample was drawn. An important part of the process is the verification and validation of patterns on other samples of data.

The related terms data dredging, data fishing and data snooping refer to the use of data mining techniques to sample sizes that are (or may be) too small for statistical inferences to be made about the validity of any patterns discovered (see also data-snooping bias). Data dredging may, however, be used to develop new hypotheses, which must then be validated with sufficiently large sample sets.

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DataMining Overview

Generally, data mining (sometimes called data or knowledge discovery) is the process of analyzing data from different perspectives and summarizing it into useful information - information that can be used to increase revenue, cuts costs, or both. Data mining software is one of a number of analytical tools for analyzing data. It allows users to analyze data from many different dimensions or angles, categorize it, and summarize the relationships identified. Technically, data mining is the process of finding correlations or patterns among dozens of fields in large relational databases.

Continuous Innovation

Although data mining is a relatively new term, the technology is not. Companies have used powerful computers to sift through volumes of supermarket scanner data and analyze market research reports for years. However, continuous innovations in computer processing power, disk storage, and statistical software are dramatically increasing the accuracy of analysis while driving down the cost.

Example

For example, one Midwest grocery chain used the data mining capacity of Oracle software to analyze local buying patterns. They discovered that when men bought diapers on Thursdays and Saturdays, they also tended to buy beer. Further analysis showed that these shoppers typically did their weekly grocery shopping on Saturdays. On Thursdays, however, they only bought a few items. The retailer concluded that they purchased the beer to have it available for the upcoming weekend. The grocery chain could use this newly discovered information in various ways to increase revenue. For example, they could move the beer display closer to the diaper display. And, they could make sure beer and diapers were sold at full price on Thursdays.

Data, Information, and Knowledge

Data

Data are any facts, numbers, or text that can be processed by a computer. Today, organizations are accumulating vast and growing amounts of data in different formats and different databases. This includes:

operational or transactional data such as, sales, cost, inventory, payroll, and accounting

nonoperational data, such as industry sales, forecast data, and macro economic data

meta data - data about the data itself, such as logical database design or data dictionary definitions

Information

The patterns, associations, or relationships among all this data can provide information. For example, analysis of retail point of sale transaction data can yield information on which products are selling and when.

Knowledge

Information can be converted into knowledge about historical patterns and future trends. For example, summary information on retail supermarket sales can be analyzed in light of promotional efforts to provide knowledge of consumer buying behavior. Thus, a manufacturer or retailer could determine which items are most susceptible to promotional efforts.

Data Warehouses

Dramatic advances in data capture, processing power, data transmission, and storage capabilities are enabling organizations to integrate their various databases into data warehouses. Data warehousing is defined as a process of centralized data management and retrieval. Data warehousing, like data mining, is a relatively new term although the concept itself has been around for years. Data warehousing represents an ideal vision of maintaining a central repository of all organizational data. Centralization of data is needed to maximize user access and analysis. Dramatic technological advances are making this vision a reality for many companies. And, equally dramatic advances in data analysis software are allowing users to access this data freely. The data analysis software is what supports data mining.

What can data mining do?

Data mining is primarily used today by companies with a strong consumer focus - retail, financial, communication, and marketing organizations. It enables these companies to determine relationships among "internal" factors such as price, product positioning, or staff skills, and "external" factors such as economic indicators, competition, and customer demographics. And, it enables them to determine the impact on sales, customer satisfaction, and corporate profits. Finally, it enables them to "drill down" into summary information to view detail transactional data.

With data mining, a retailer could use point-of-sale records of customer purchases to send targeted promotions based on an individual's purchase history. By mining demographic data from comment or warranty cards, the retailer could develop products and promotions to appeal to specific customer segments.

For example, Blockbuster Entertainment mines its video rental history database to recommend rentals to individual customers. American Express can suggest products to its cardholders based on analysis of their monthly expenditures.

WalMart is pioneering massive data mining to transform its supplier relationships. WalMart captures point-of-sale transactions from over 2,900 stores in 6 countries and continuously transmits this data to its massive 7.5 terabyte Teradata data warehouse. WalMart allows more than 3,500 suppliers, to access data on their products and perform data analyses. These suppliers use this data to identify customer buying patterns at the store display level. They use this information to manage local store inventory and identify new merchandising opportunities. In 1995, WalMart computers processed over 1 million complex data queries.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is exploring a data mining application that can be used in conjunction with image recordings of basketball games. The Advanced Scout software analyzes the movements of players to help coaches orchestrate plays and strategies. For example, an analysis of the play-by-play sheet of the game played between the New York Knicks and the Cleveland Cavaliers on January 6, 1995 reveals that when Mark Price played the Guard position, John Williams attempted four jump shots and made each one! Advanced Scout not only finds this pattern, but explains that it is interesting because it differs considerably from the average shooting percentage of 49.30% for the Cavaliers during that game.

By using the NBA universal clock, a coach can automatically bring up the video clips showing each of the jump shots attempted by Williams with Price on the floor, without needing to comb through hours of video footage. Those clips show a very successful pick-and-roll play in which Price draws the Knick's defense and then finds Williams for an open jump shot.

How does data mining work?

While large-scale information technology has been evolving separate transaction and analytical systems, data mining provides the link between the two. Data mining software analyzes relationships and patterns in stored transaction data based on open-ended user queries. Several types of analytical software are available: statistical, machine learning, and neural networks. Generally, any of four types of relationships are sought:

Classes: Stored data is used to locate data in predetermined groups. For example, a restaurant chain could mine customer purchase data to determine when customers visit and what they typically order. This information could be used to increase traffic by having daily specials.

Clusters: Data items are grouped according to logical relationships or consumer preferences. For example, data can be mined to identify market segments or consumer affinities.

Associations: Data can be mined to identify associations. The beer-diaper example is an example of associative mining.

Sequential patterns: Data is mined to anticipate behavior patterns and trends. For example, an outdoor equipment retailer could predict the likelihood of a backpack being purchased based on a consumer's purchase of sleeping bags and hiking shoes.

Data mining consists of five major elements:

Extract, transform, and load transaction data onto the data warehouse system.

Store and manage the data in a multidimensional database system.

Provide data access to business analysts and information technology professionals.

Analyze the data by application software.

Present the data in a useful format, such as a graph or table.

Different levels of analysis are available:

Artificial neural networks: Non-linear predictive models that learn through training and resemble biological neural networks in structure.

Genetic algorithms: Optimization techniques that use processes such as genetic combination, mutation, and natural selection in a design based on the concepts of natural evolution.

Decision trees: Tree-shaped structures that represent sets of decisions. These decisions generate rules for the classification of a dataset. Specific decision tree methods include Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) . CART and CHAID are decision tree techniques used for classification of a dataset. They provide a set of rules that you can apply to a new (unclassified) dataset to predict which records will have a given outcome. CART segments a dataset by creating 2-way splits while CHAID segments using chi square tests to create multi-way splits. CART typically requires less data preparation than CHAID.

Nearest neighbor method: A technique that classifies each record in a dataset based on a combination of the classes of the k record(s) most similar to it in a historical dataset (where k 1). Sometimes called the k-nearest neighbor technique.

Rule induction: The extraction of useful if-then rules from data based on statistical significance.

Data visualization: The visual interpretation of complex relationships in multidimensional data. Graphics tools are used to illustrate data relationships.

What technological infrastructure is required?

Today, data mining applications are available on all size systems for mainframe, client/server, and PC platforms. System prices range from several thousand dollars for the smallest applications up to $1 million a terabyte for the largest. Enterprise-wide applications generally range in size from 10 gigabytes to over 11 terabytes. NCR has the capacity to deliver applications exceeding 100 terabytes. There are two critical technological drivers:

Size of the database: the more data being processed and maintained, the more powerful the system required.

Query complexity: the more complex the queries and the greater the number of queries being processed, the more powerful the system required.

Relational database storage and management technology is adequate for many data mining applications less than 50 gigabytes. However, this infrastructure needs to be significantly enhanced to support larger applications. Some vendors have added extensive indexing capabilities to improve query performance. Others use new hardware architectures such as Massively Parallel Processors (MPP) to achieve order-of-magnitude improvements in query time. For example, MPP systems from NCR link hundreds of high-speed Pentium processors to achieve performance levels exceeding those of the largest supercomputers.

This report is based on the report http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/

References:

1) http://wwwmaths.anu.edu.au/~steve/pdcn.pdf [PDF]

2) http://www.autonlab.org/tutorials/

3) http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms167167.aspx

4)http://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~dickey/Analytics/Datamine/Powerpoints/Data%20Mining%20Tutorial.ppt[PPT]

5) http://www.dsic.upv.es/~jorallo/dm/index.html

6) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_mining

7) http://datamining.typepad.com/

The Foundations of Data Mining

Data mining techniques are the result of a long process of research and product development. This evolution began when business data was first stored on computers, continued with improvements in data access, and more recently, generated technologies that allow users to navigate through their data in real time. Data mining takes this evolutionary process beyond retrospective data access and navigation to prospective and proactive information delivery. Data mining is ready for application in the business community because it is supported by three technologies that are now sufficiently mature:

* Massive data collection

* Powerful multiprocessor computers

* Data mining algorithms

Commercial databases are growing at unprecedented rates. A recent META Group survey of data warehouse projects found that 19% of respondents are beyond the 50 gigabyte level, while 59% expect to be there by second quarter of 1996.1 In some industries, such as retail, these numbers can be much larger. The accompanying need for improved computational engines can now be met in a cost-effective manner with parallel multiprocessor computer technology. Data mining algorithms embody techniques that have existed for at least 10 years, but have only recently been implemented as mature, reliable, understandable tools that consistently outperform older statistical methods.

In the evolution from business data to business information, each new step has built upon the previous one. For example, dynamic data access is critical for drill-through in data navigation applications, and the ability to store large databases is critical to data mining. From the user's point of view, the four steps listed in Table 1 were revolutionary because they allowed new business questions to be answered accurately and quickly.

An excellent article on The Foundations of Data Mining :http://www.thearling.com/text/dmwhite/dmwhite.htm

And a detailed index on Data mining: http://www.thearling.com/index.htm

Data mining l The non-trivial extraction of novel, implicit, and actionable knowledge from large datasets. l Extremely large datasets l Discovery of the non-obvious l Useful knowledge that can improve processes l Can not be done manually l Technology to enable data exploration, data analysis, and data visualization of very large databases at a high level of abstraction, without a specific hypothesis in mind. l Sophisticated data search capability that uses statistical algorithms to discover patterns and correlations in data. Data Mining is a step of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) Process l Data Warehousing l Data Selection l Data Preprocessing l Data Transformation l Data Mining l Interpretation/Evaluation l Data Mining is sometimes referred to as KDD and DM and KDD tend to be used as synonyms Data Mining in CRM l DM helps to l Determine the behavior surrounding a particular lifecycle event l Find other people in similar life stages and determine which customers are following similar behavior patterns more l Building Data Mining Applications for CRM by Alex Berson, Stephen Smith, Kurt Thearling (McGraw Hill, 2000). Data Minin Customer Life Cycle Info. g

Levels of data mining Macro level Mining at the macro level gives us a broad overview of the data. This is used under following circumstance # when we are dealing with the customers for the first time. # when the co. is enterning a new market with a new product. # we are dealing aspects of services which influence a majority of the customer # predicting the possibility of an action that the customer has never taken. Micro (individual level) Relationship with individual customer can be strengthen by offering customized value proposition witch you get from micro level scanning knowledge obtained is useful when the company wants to provide customized service Example: When the firm wants to take advantage of personal events like birthday in a customers life.