Southeast Asia

Geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia are changing faster than ever across the whole region, while the global importance of internal Southeast Asia affairs continues to expand. The two issues of the South China Sea and the proliferation of trade partnerships are at the center of the attention of regional and global players.

What is Indonesia's position with regard to these two matters? How can we anticipate Indonesia's response to developments in the region? To what extent could, or should, Indonesia develop or strengthen its position?

It is my opinion that Indonesia should be at the center of contemporary geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia, strengthening its capacity and capability to act as a non-aligned stabilizer and as a major, if not the major, player throughout ASEAN.

Establishing and preserving economic stability, while boosting economic development in the region is the primary role of ASEAN. Indonesia as a nation, diplomatic power or economy, can and must be at the heart of the drive toward these objectives. Such is the power of the Indonesian economy that regional stability cannot be attained without us, and therefore could be achieved with our national interests to the fore.

The South China Sea has become an important issue for Indonesia because there are now so many territorial disputes between China and ASEAN countries (the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam). For some time China and the Philippines have been playing a dangerous game of tit for tat with their vessels in Scarborough shoal, which is claimed by both parties as their territory. Both sides have deliberately raised the tension in the area to the extent that China recently issued a warning to its citizens in the Philippines. The Philippines has a commitment from the US to protect what it considers to be Filipino territory, if attacked.

The tension in the South China Sea could easily become an outright war, if not managed effectively.

Australia invited the US to deploy 2,500 marines in Darwin, purportedly to respond to natural disasters in the region. It also has the promise of US surveillance devices to be deployed in the Cocos Islands to monitor activity in the South China Sea.

These developments have not gone unnoticed by China or the members of ASEAN. The South China Sea looks likely to become yet another theater for competition, posturing and saber rattling between China and the US. Geographically, this is a wholly new area of geopolitical tensions and it is our own backyard.

If the South China Sea represents the new geopolitics, then the proliferation of economic partnerships must surely epitomize the new geoeconomics of Southeast Asia. ASEAN has expanded its economic cooperation with external counterparts through free trade agreements (FTA) and other economic partnership agreements. Several economic agreements are now signed, sealed and in process of delivery, with such neighbors and near-neighbors, as China, India, Australia and New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.

Individual member countries have also reached bilateral economic arrangements, for example: EFTA-Singapore, China-Singapore and Brunei-Japan.

The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is emerging as an important trade agreement in our region.

The TPP member countries are currently New Zealand, Singapore, Brunei Darussalam and Chile. The US, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam and Japan have expressed interest in membership and negotiations to expand go on apace.

While not yet a member of the partnership itself, the US has declared its intention to persuade allies in Southeast Asia to join this organization. Thus, the rapid expansion of trade agreements combined with US promotion of TPP characterizes the new geoeconomics of the area.

Like it or not, Indonesia's position is at the center of these developments. On the one hand, we are the biggest country in Southeast Asia, with a strategic position in relation to China, the US, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

On the other hand, Indonesia is caught in the middle of the burgeoning rivalry between China and the US on the issues highlighted above: economic and territorial muscle in the region.

Non-aligned and caught between the superpowers, Indonesia is perfectly placed to be a stabilizing influence and honest broker between the two. We have both opportunity and capacity to promote peace and security and foster economic development.

With regard to the geopolitics of Southeast Asia, if Indonesian influence is brought to bear, then perhaps China can be convinced to respect the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea? Indonesia, and perhaps only Indonesia, has the motive and the opportunity to influence the Philippines and China and lessen the tension in the South China Sea.

Indonesia could propose joint sovereignty of disputed sea areas to China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam with the backing of the US and other ASEAN countries. If needs must, Indonesia could impose and police such an arrangement.

Under our leadership, ASEAN and China can create a joint security commission to monitor collective arrangements (e.g. maritime security and energy cooperation) in the South China Sea.

With strong, impartial leadership, China, the Philippines, and other concerned nations may work together to secure and develop the South China Sea without the current atmosphere of fear, distrust and threats.

With regard to the geoeconomics of Southeast Asia, Indonesia can empower ASEAN to reach a common position when responding to the proliferation of economic partnerships in the region. Indonesia should remind and influence other ASEAN countries to act collectively to strengthen FTAs that exist with external counterparts and to empower the East Asia Summit (EAS) as a basis for economic cooperation in East Asia.

The US, Australia and other regional players are members of EAS. In other words, if the will were there, Indonesia could bring about a collective effort of ASEAN, the US and other players to promote the EAS as an axis of economic cooperation.

The writer is a lecturer at the University of Indonesia and a researcher with the University of Edinburgh, UK.

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